May 12th, 2011
I did a quick calculation in Excel to determine how far an ad server should run before automatically shutting off an ad or making a bid decision. An ad server can shut down due to the URL being down, being scrubbed, the landing page not converting, the particular ad not performing, or another variable.
Let’s say that you have an offer that converts at 1%. Then you’d expect to have 1 conversion in every 100 clicks. What if 200 clicks go by and there are no conversions? Is that a sign of something bad or is that just noise?
The math of calculating statistical significance can be complicated, so I’m going to show you a short cut that comes from probability theory. If you want to go straight to the formula skip to the bottom.
Switching examples, let’s say that you flipped a coin 100 times. What is the probability that you get at least 1 head? You might want to calculate the probability of getting just 1 head in 100 tosses, add that to the probability of getting 2 heads, and so forth– all the way up to 100 heads. This is lots of math.
But did you know that the opposite of at least one is none? If you didn’t get at least 1 head, you got none. Thus, the probability of not getting a head each time you flip is 50%, so the answer is just 50% to the 100th power.
Back to our offer that converts at 1%, the probability of a click NOT converting is 99%– 100 percent minus 1 percent. Thus, the probability of not getting a conversion in X clicks is just 99% to the Xth degree. If 200 clicks go by, you would expect to see 2 conversions– but if there are none, what is the probability it’s just random noise?
Plug those numbers in and you’ll see that if an offer should convert at 1% and you see 200 clicks go by, then it’s a 13.4% chance that something is wrong and therefore a 86.6% chance that things are fine. If you change the conversion rate and number of observations, then the probability changes, too– just plug in the numbers.
Now before you set up a script to alert you to changes in conversion rates, consider that if you set the thresholds for alerts too low, you’ll get inundated with false positives– the equivalent of “crying wolf”.
So in the above case, if there’s a 13.4% chance something is actually wrong– the URL being down, the offer sucking, the ad not performing, or otherwise– and you’re running 20,000 clicks a day, then you are evaluating this test 100 times a day (200 x 100 = 20,000). Thus, you’d get alerted, on average, 13 times a day to check if something is wrong. Is that too many times for you? You decide the balance of sensitivity that’s right for you.
If your expected conversion rate is 5%, for example on dating offer, then you’d expect to see a conversion every 20 clicks. Thus, the probability you don’t have any conversions after 200 clicks is far less than if you expect 1%. In fact, the probability is 0.004%.
If you’re not a math guy or somehow got lost in all the numbers here, just use this rule of thumb. If you don’t have a conversion in 3 times as many clicks as you’d expect to get one conversion, then something is probably wrong.
So if you expect to see 1 conversion every 25 clicks, then shut things down after 75 clicks.
If you expect 1 conversion in 100 clicks, then stop after 300 clicks.
That gives you a 95% confidence interval– another way of saying that you’re reasonably sure that it’s something worth looking at.
Set your confidence interval too low and you get false positives all day.
Set it too high and you’ll burn way more inventory than you should to detect differences in conversion.
See chart below– the percentages there are the chance that the alert is due to just statistical noise. 100% minus each number is, therefore, the chance that there’s a problem. For example, if you are looking at a 2% conversion rate and 200 clicks, then there’s a 1.76% chance nothing is wrong and a 98% chance that something is out of whack.
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If you want to discuss the formulas in more detail, just reply in the comments and I’ll do my best to get back to you.
Here’s to more profits to you!
Related Reading:
Tags: conversions, PPC
Posted in Learning Center | No Comments »
April 25th, 2011
Retargeting is a new buzzword that is quickly spreading through the marketing community. Many online business owners have heard the term recently but aren’t quite sure what it means. I spent some time researching this fast-growing marketing technique and wanted to share my findings with you.
Let’s start with a common definition of retargeting. Retargeting, also commonly known as “behavioral retargeting” or “behavioral remarketing”, essentially means targeting ads and marketing efforts at consumers and prospects who have previously visited your website, but did not convert.
The key here is that you target your ads only at users who have visited your site, have had some kind of experience with your brand, and who are now considered “lost” users. Retargeting aims to bring those lost users back to you, using ads that can skip the “introduction to your brand” phase.
Anyone who sells anything on the web understands that converting is the number one goal. Retargeting allows you to go after those lost conversions, and some studies show that retargeting can increase conversion rates by up to 125%.
Keys To Successful Retargeting Campaigns
- Granular targeting: Being able to segment your visitors into small, tightly focused groups enables precise retargeting. For example, by knowing exactly which specific products and services your visitors engaged with on your site, you can later deliver those same product ad to that group of users.
- Working with ad networks who have the technology to track and use the information obtained to present retargeted ads across a large network of sites is essential to making this work. When a user visits your site, a cookie is dropped to track that user’s interests on your site. You share that cookie with your ad network, who in turn, serves relevant ads to that same user as he or she lands on any other site that uses that ad network to serve ads.
- Personalization of the ad is critical. You’ll set business rules to determine which ads get displayed (using dynamic content insertion) based on various factors, such as whether the user is a registered user of your site and has supplied you with an email address in the past, what phase of the buying cycle she is likely to be in, how many times she has visited and left without converting, etc.
- Careful and continuous analysis of web analytics is a must to create successful retargeting campaigns. Knowing which ads work, and which ads the user has seen too many times are equally vital. A good campaign will provide a variety of ads aimed at promoting the same thing to measure success and frequency caps to avoid ad burnout.
- Dynamic, customized landing pages work well. If a retargeted ad is successful in bring a user back to your site, acknowledging her return can welcome her and personalize the experience for her.
- Once a retargeted user converts, the cookie is removed, and the user falls out of the retargeting group.
- You can also use the same concept of retargeting in the social realm, though with admittedly less control, since you won’t be able to drop a cookie. You’ll also be limited to a narrow online world, but one which your users are likely spending most of their time. One of the big advantages of utilizing Facebook ads, for example, is that the ads can be targeted to highly specific groups. You can set up ads to target only Facebook users who have a relevant interest (or is a fan of a competitor), and who aren’t fans of you yet. Send them to a specific landing page. If they don’t convert (they don’t click the Like button), you can continue to show them a variety of different ads to remind them of your offer. You’ll also need to be careful to avoid ad burnout here, and may need to create shorter-term campaigns when retargeting within a social network. If your retargeting efforts succeed and a user converts, she’ll drop out of the user pool that you’re targeting with this group of ads.
Add Retargeting To The Marketing Mix
Marketers always want to supply the right ad to the right user at the right time. Sometimes, that means showing a generic display ad that introduces your brand to users who have never heard of you. Other times, you may show ads to search engine users with relevant PPC ads. Now, with retargeting, you can also show personalized ads to users who have already visited your site and failed to convert. Your brand is one they are already familiar with, so you can skip the introductions and move right to the phase of reminding them that they had considered one of your products in the recent past. Reminding “lost” users of your brand – and specific products – enables you to reach an audience that the other types of ads aren’t designed to reach.
Tags: advertising, conversions, facebook advertising
Posted in Facebook, Learning Center, SEO and Marketing | No Comments »
April 14th, 2011
Anna Sposito, Sarah Coghill, and I, Donna Fontenot, attended a webinar presented by Victoria Ransom, Founder and CEO of Wildfire Interactive (@wildfireapp) and Mike Volpe, VP of Marketing, HubSpot (@mvolpe). We live-blogged it and collaborately put this summary together. Hope you enjoy it as much as we enjoyed the presentation.
Mike presented first and began with some statistics:
86% of television viewers skip tv ads and 44% discard direct mail without even looking at it . People went from filtering out advertising via TV and print, and now are also filtering out email as well. In addition, the spam filters that we are familiar with in email, are also now social, and social cues are used to filter messages. Where email used to be organized by date, and flagrant spam was sent to the bottom of the pile, social filters promote things you like (people and brands) to the top of the messages you receive, and demote things you don’t like or don’t know to the bottom of the pile.
What this means is that it is getting harder and harder to get into someone’s email inbox.
Though marketers are addicted to advertising , the traditional marketing channels are becoming less and less effective. The old methods include renting the capability of building an audience from someone else, such as renting an email list, or via outbound marketing such as traditional advertising, conferences/events, paid search / ppc, and cold calling. Instead of putting money into advertising that is being missed by your customer, in turn wasting money, a better thought presented by the speaker was to build your audience so that it becomes an asset to your company rather than an expense. Types of marketing that can be considered assets are blogging, SEO, free tools, opt-in email lists, and social media such as twitter and a facebook fan page. These assets are within your control, so these are the things you want to utilize.
(Note: Questions arose after the presentation about how things like Facebook fan pages may not really be an asset or within your control as Facebook could disappear or change things at any time. The presenter mentioned that Facebook’s interests are aligned with businesses’ interests, since businesses drive traffic and money to Facebook, so they will want to keep businesses happy. I agree, but also think it’s prudent to be prepared to switch gears if an outside asset that you don’t have full control over goes under at some point).
Competition: Your competition is not who you think it is. Our competitors are those that compete for the time and attention of your social media audience, and social media is only one piece of the new marketer’s puzzle. The funnel begins with social media marketing and search engine marketing, flows through to content marketing, then conversion marketing, then lead nurturing and sales support. It’s time to focus on inbound marketing and nurture the audience.
Some stats: Companies with a blog receive 97% more links. 85% of web pages have less than 7 inbound links. So just getting a few links can have a real effect. While links are still important, what’s new is that Likes are replacing links.
SEO/Blogging & Social Media
- Blogging often leads to higher Google search results rank
- More inbound links, the higher the rank
- More content makes you interesting
Coming to SEO: Likes are replacing Links
The Past: SEO Ranking Algorithm = Context + Authority
The Future: Ranking Algorithms = Context + Authority + Social Graph
Lead Generation and Social Media
Social Media = leads and sales , and is effective for both B2B and B2C. The evolution of the marketing database begain with the direct mail list. Then phone numbers were added to the database for telemarketing. Next, email arrived, and now, it’s social. Each new phase brought more touchpoints with customers, and now the marketing database is becoming a lot more social.
Branding and Social Media
The old way: Hire an agency > Agency makes creative > Buy ad slots in TV and print > Produce a sterile ad that tells people what you want them to hear, creating a one-way communication. Customers either ignored or accepted it.
The new way: Brands are whatever people say it is, so grow a brand by cultivation, not control. Allow people to state their real opinions of you, good, bad and ugly. For example, Domino’s “Show Us Your Pizza” campaign let consumers display how bad the pizzas looked when they arrived. Domino’s embraced those real opinions to let consumers control the brand perception.
Research and Social Media
Current Twitter stats: 110,000,000 tweets/day = 1300/second
Focus groups are dead, because the participants don’t act the same as they do in real life. Now we can see how people really feel and react in the real world because social media tools allow us to do that. This is great for research.
Advice for the Road Ahead
- Stop thinking like an advertiser.
- Start thinking like a publisher and socializer.
- Commit to the new inbound strategy.
- Don’t dip your toe in the water. Commit and jump in all the way.
- Showing customers you’re really interested will make them commit to engaging with you and will let your brand take up their time to do so.
Victoria takes over now with Facebook tips.
3 Aspects of Successful Facebook Marketing
Grow > Engage > Monetize
Facebook benefits for marketers: 92% of fans say that since becoming a fan, they are more likely to recommend that brand to their friends. 36% say that their desire to buy from the brand increased, after becoming a fan. 90% trust their friends, and only 33% trust online ads.
3 phases:
Phase 1: GROW
This is the time to grow your existing audience and build it up by obtaining fans. Use cross-promotions with your current newsletter and website. The idea is to encourage your existing base to become fans, and be sure to give them a reason to do so. Offer a prize, deal, or exclusive content to them. Encourage them to spread the word. Another way to acquire fans is with Facebook ads. 75% say they learned about a fan page because of an ad.
How to run effective Facebook ads:
1. Give them a reason to click.
2. Don’t drive people outside of facebook.
3. Advertise to friends of fans. Everyone who sees your ad will see that their own friends like your brand, right there on the ad.
4. A/B test and keep it fresh. For example, faces and beautiful scenes will usually work better than large crowds with indistiguishable faces on images, but testing will let you know what works and what doesn’t. CTR drops if people see the same ad over and over again, so use new images and new copy often.
Promotion: The #1 reason people become fans is to get deals, giveaways, contests, etc. Companies that run contests have twice as many fans as companies that don’t.
How to run effective promotions:
1. Simple, simple, simple – dont make them work hard to enter. Use short entry forms.
2. Consider how to make it social. Group deals, etc. make them want to share it. Normal sweepstakes aren’t social, because they won’t want to share with friends, as that will reduce their chances of winning. But if you give 2 prizes – a winner and a referral prize, then it becomes important to share with friends. Another idea: give a group prize (tickets to them and the 4 friends they share with).
3. Tap into their interests and passions. They’ll share something that expresses something about their persona. Run campaigns about sports, hobbies, pets, etc., They’ll share it more because it taps into their passions or causes. Have them share to have you donate to a charity. They’ll feel good about sharing for that.
Phase 2: ENGAGE
Facebook newsfeed: Communicate with your audience; tell fans what you want them to do. The algo only shows your posts to some of your fans, so the more engagement you get from your fans, the more the algo will show your posts to more of your fans.
Engagement means getting people to comment on or like your posts.
Ask Questions to get comments. Tell them about a sweepstakes, but in the same post, ask them a question about it. Keep it simple – yes/no, or just a few words to answer.
Ask for Likes. Example: “If you think this video is interesting, click the like button.”
Quality posts are better than quantity of posts. Even if one post gets 500 comments, if a bunch of the previous posts got very little engagement, the algo will factor in all those that didn’t do well and won’t show your future posts to as many fans.
Make fan pages better with deals, entertainment, and exclusivity. Also tie interesting content to holidays as well.
Phase 3: MONETIZE
Make the buying process fun and social, which is consistent with why they are on Facebook in the first place.
Example One: Instead of a boring coupon campaign, give it a fun element. For example, you could make the coupon a mystery, where they have to become a fan before they can see what kind of coupon they “win”. Make the campaign short, so there is a sense of urgency.
Example Two: Group deals.
Example Three: In-store giveaways. If a fan comes into the real-world store, they’ll get something small for free. This gets them into the store, and they almost always buy something else as well.
Presentation is over, now we’re on to Q&A:
Q: Do contests bring more or less loyal fans?
A: Over 95% are more likely to recommend and buy from a brand when they are introduced to your brand through a contest. Loyalty is increased because of this kind of introduction. Target your contest carefully to those who are likely to be interested in your product. Make the prize relevant to your product/service, so you attract the right new customers.
Q: Is this really right for B2B?
A: B2B generally will get less fans, but can still be very successful with a smaller, but targeted fan base. However, if your audience is only 50 companies world-wide, then you’re probably better off with a sales force, but if your business can sell to many business around the world, then Facebook is a good way to reach out to that diverse audience.
They ended with how to use Wildfire apps and Hubspot. Wildfire apps use a wizard, leading you step by step to get the campaign going. Most apps charge per campaign, and can be as low as 99 cents per day. Hubspot has a suite of marketing tools, such as software to blog, build forms, landing pages, seo tools, email marketing, analytics, etc. all in one marketing system.
Final thoughts from Donna, Anna, and Sarah:
Donna: This was great information, and follows right along with the kinds of information I keep up with on a daily basis. Much of it went into more detail in some areas that I haven’t previously focused on, so it was great to get that extra education.
Sarah: I thought the webinar was very interesting and it is always nice to hear something repeated to validate what it is that we do here on a daily basis!
Anna: I thought that the webinar was interesting. It confirmed the shift that is happening in marketing/advertising I had sensed coming. It was helpful to hear how to communicate this information to businesses in a way that is not intimidating but very straight forward and attainable for them. Ties into the needs that I feel BlitzLocal is trying to offer to its clients…very exciting.
Posted in Learning Center | No Comments »
February 8th, 2011
Google will merge your listings when the data is too similar or the information is deemed incorrect. Examples:
- Like addresses in same genre: Consider two chiropractors who share the same office but have different suites. The addresses are too similar and the listings will likely get merged. However, a chiropractor and a mechanic within the same complex are less likely to be merged.
- Like business name: Let’s take “Atlanta Pest Control Inc” and “Atlanta Pest Control Service LLC”. Too close. If you are trying to create a similar listing, you might notice Google ask if you are “Atlanta Pest and Bug Control”. Ultimately, the guy with the most credible references matching his name, address, phone number, and website will gobble up the other listings. Some merges end with a mix of the two companies– His name, your phone number. We’ve seen this happen with large franchise clients. So you should add more content to your local listings, not just for Universal Search, but to prevent your listing from getting merged accidentally.
- Same business name, but different locations: Franchises may see their listings merge. Key reason– identical website address and phone number across the listings. Thus, it’s a good idea to have specific landing pages for each location, plus a local area code, not a toll-free number. If your locations are “fake rental mailboxes” or “virtual offices”, then you are at a higher risk and may be guilty of locksmith spam. Ranking and trust factors also likely play a role here– to what degree, Google won’t say.
How to Unmerge
1- Fix Claimed Listing: First check and perhaps fix it in your Google Places. If the info is correct in the listing then try making another edit, like to your description, so that your Google places has the most recent edit. Note that this may cause another request for verification. If it does then simply comply and wait for the verification.
If you have not claimed the listing and it says owner verified, then you will want to claim the listing for yourself. Simply click on the text “Owner Verified” and it will take you to Google places. You can create your profile there and claim your listings. This will take time as you will have to wait for Google to verify you and then sort out who the real owner is. There are ways to weight this judgment in your favor.
2- Correcting the information elsewhere
Your first line of attack in correcting online local information is: InfoUSA. This one site feeds thousands of other directories. Fix your info here. Add your info here. It will take some time to spread, but they are a key ingredient. If two legit business exist with similar addresses, then make sure both are added. Yes, you are doing your neighbor a favor, but you are also protecting your listing.
3- Adding more information
Google scrapes content from other sites. Make sure you are listed on those sites. (Superpages, YellowPages, Insiderpages, Yelp, Yahoo, BrownBook, Dex, Mojo, UrbanSpoon, Your BLOG). MAKE ALL OF YOUR ADDRESSES CONSISTENT. Use the exact same punctuation, abbreviations, everything. Make it either “Suite – C” or “Suite C”, “Avenue”, or “Ave.”, “West” , “W” or “W.” Yes, Google should catch all of this and they do a good job for the most part, but Don’t leave it to Google. Even the littlest of inconsistencies could give you a huge headache later.
4- Wait for it.
Google usually doesn’t show edits immediately. Some updates will take place very quickly, within a couple of hours or a couple of days. Most unmergers will take months. These steps should solve your merging problems and even unmerge listings. If you had reviews with your previous listing then you want an unmerge. Google stores all the previous information. Just check the reviews.
Old Review Sample: In this case, the review is still in Google’s system but is not associated with a local listing. If you get the error, “We no longer support this location” then your listing was banned. If your listing was merged with another location then they will merge the reviews as well. Creating an unmerge should bring those reviews back over, as in the sample review the original address that was associated with the review is still attached to the review.
5- Last Resort: Create a new listing.
If those steps do not fix your problem after 3 months then you may attempt to create a new listing all together. You will probably lose your reviews. Make sure that you still follow Step 2 so that other sources are parroting your business information. Without outside references your business listing will not stick.
Posted in BlitzLocal, Company Blog, Learning Center | No Comments »
